2020 Key State Analysis – How winning CO, MN, NV, and NM could be much easier in 2020 for President Trump. The Forgotten 25 Electoral Votes.
By. G Mentz, Esq.
Against the 91% or higher predictions by the New York Times polling experts saying Trump could not win, Donald Trump won in a “30-state- landslide” in 2016. However, many overlook that President Trump lost several key states which had “Alt-Former-Republicans” on the ballot and further, Trump would have had much bigger victories in FL, PA, OH had these “former-republicans” not been on the state ballots. As a note, Alt is a word sometimes used as an abbreviation for Alternative or by Hillary Clinton, but the world probably comes from the old European word “ALT” meaning OLD. So, Alt-Republicans were old-line republicans who were uncertain about Mr. Trumps ability to lead in a moderate to conservative fashion in 2016, but these “2016 Republican/Libertarian Voters” may not have an alternative on the ballot in 2020 or may simply believe that Trump has kept his promises.
Key State Analysis
There are several states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 where more than 50% of the people voted against her or for other candidates. In contrast, several key states had Republican/Libertarians on the ballot. If Trump picks up the Libertarian/Republican votes in 2020, he stands to pick up 7 more states and up to another 54 Electoral Votes.
States Hillary Won without a Majority
- Colorado 48.16% with 9 Electoral Votes
- Minn. 46.44% with 10 Electoral Votes
- Nev 47.50% with 6 Electoral Votes
- NH 46.98% with 4 Electoral Votes
- NM 48.26% with 5 Electoral Votes
- Oregon 50.07% with 7 Electoral Votes
- Virginia 49.73% with 13 Electoral Votes
This is How Trump Could win The Electoral College Even Easier this time
Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania could be tight, but if you remove the alternative-republicans, Trump can pick up another 2-3 percent of the popular vote in these states. Remember, former-republicans on the ballot, Johnson and Weld, earned 146,715 votes or 2.38% of Pennsylvania which would have given President Trump a clear and decisive early win of PA. President Trump would have destroyed Clinton in Ohio had he received the 174,498 Alt-Republican votes received by Gary Johnson & William Weld, but Mr. Trump won Ohio anyway. Further, if President Trump would have received the Alt-Republican vote in Florida of 207,043 votes or 2.20% for Johnson/Weld, it would have been a much bigger victory for Trump.
- In Colorado, Former moderate-republicans, Gary Johnson and William Weld got a whopping 144,121 votes or 5.17% of the vote in 2016. Hillary Clinton only won by 135 thousand votes and another 70,000 votes went to the Green, Independent and Constitution party candidates.
- In Michigan, Gary Johnson and William Weld got a formidable 172,136 votes or 3.59% of the Michigan votes.
- In MN Minnesota, the Alt-Republicans (Gary Johnson & William Weld) got 112,972 votes or 3.84% of the vote where Hillary only won by about 45 thousand votes.
- In Nevada, again Gary Johnson and Weld pulled 37,384 votes or 3.29%. where Hillary won by less than 30 thousand votes.
- In New Mexico, Gary Johnson and William Weld got a whopping 74,541 votes or 9.3% of the vote. Hillary only won by roughly 65,000 votes.
- As for Oregon and Virginia, it would be difficult for Trump to carry Oregon, but Virgina is possible. Interestingly, the former- Republicans Johnson & Weld racked up 118,274 votes in Virginia and Hillary Clinton carried the state with less than 50% of the vote.
As a note, in most states the Green Candidate Jill Stein only received about 1% of the vote in these mentioned states. Thus, the Alt-Republicans siphoned 2 to 3 times more votes away from Trump than the other candidates took from Clinton. The more I look at these states won by Hillary without a plurality of votes, the clearer it becomes that somebody was funding the Alt-Republicans to help Hillary win as there was no other reason to tamper with the election in this way.
With President Donald Trump proving to constituents that he would lead as a conservative, appoint rock-solid judges, and be strong on Jobs and the military, he has eliminated the doubt and concern of the former Cruz and Bush republicans along with appeasing the “Alt-Republican” vote.
George Mentz JD MBA CWM is an award winning author, commissioner, and wealth management law professor. He is a licensed attorney and CEO of GAFM ® global finance and management education, which is an ISO 21001 Certified professional development company operating in over 50 nations. Mentz is a former investment banker and wealth manager for a Wall Street Firm, an award winning author and advisory board member to several companies around the world involved in education, charity, and Fintech.